Flights are cheapest 5 to 16 weeks out in 2019: Here’s when to book
Trying to find the absolute cheapest airfare for a trip you are planning is like playing a game that feels too easy to lose. Now in this era of ‘big data’ where many companies are able to check airfares on every route every day to calculate the cheapest possible time to buy, it’s finally a bit easier.
Only a few years ago the advice was often to buy between 4 and 6 weeks out, but things have changed and it really depends on where you are going. As you’ll see in the 2019 update below, the window for buying the cheapest fares starts earlier these days and buying about 4 months out often leads to the best deals. We’ve summarized a variety of studies below and with a quick scan you should be able to get some insight on when to buy and when to wait.
Note: This article was first published in 2012, and has been updated and revised each year as new information has come out, most recently in February, 2019.
2019 UPDATE: The data for 2018 has been similar to 2016 and 2017, but it's still complicated
As of 2019 there are quite a few different companies that are analyzing millions of airfare purchases in order to find the money-saving trends. They tend to show the same pattern, which is that buying two or four months early is the sweet spot for most tickets.
For the tests we ran below we used the very helpful tool from Cheapair.com.
Summary: Buying air tickets earlier will usually save you money
In years past the sweet spot for buying cheap tickets often didn’t start until 6 to 8 weeks before the flight, but the data from 2018 shows once again that the cheaper airfares are now usually available starting 4 to 6 months out in many cases. In other words, if you are sure you want to fly on particular dates, you can usually get something close to the lowest possible fare if you book almost half a year out.
Another interesting thing about the data is that once you reach the beginning of that “sweet spot” where fares are near their low for any given flight, they still bounce around by up to US$50 over the next couple of months before they start heading higher as the flight approaches. So the best strategy is to set an alert for fare decreases on the route that you are shopping for, and buy as soon as you get one of those dips.
North America to Europe: 7 to 16 weeks out is usually the sweet spot
The optimal purchase window varies a bit depending on your departure and arrival cities, but generally speaking if you are flying between North America and Europe then the fares will be close to their lowest about 16 weeks out and you usually (but not always) don’t have to worry about them shooting up until about 7 weeks out.
As long as you are within that 16-week window, the longer you wait the greater the chance that the fares will start jumping up for good. This is especially true for popular travel periods such as July and August. In spring and autumn you can usually get away with waiting a bit longer.
North America to the Caribbean: Book 3 to 12 weeks out
The great news is that if you want to go to a Caribbean hot spot such as Cancun, San Juan, or Nassau, you can often get the lowest fares only 2 or 3 weeks out. You can book as early as 10 to 12 weeks out and lock in the best fares, but they usually don’t go any lower than that so waiting longer isn’t really advisable if you are sure when you want to go.
The Caribbean hurricanes in 2017 won’t change anything, in case you were curious. The islands that were affected most are all small islands that only got a small percentage of Caribbean flights in the first place. The busy airports such as Cancun, Punta Cana, and even San Juan, Puerto Rico (which has fully recovered) should carry on the same as before when it comes to airfare windows.
North America to Asia/Pacific: 8 to 20 weeks is cheapest
As of 2016 it was necessary to book long flights between North America and Asia almost half a year in advance for the lowest fares, but in 2017 and into 2018 it seems that you can book between about 8 and 20 weeks to get something close to the lowest possible price on any flight. Generally speaking, the longer the flight the earlier that people book it, so it’s wise to book as soon as you are sure of your dates.
The good news is that you no longer have to book so far in advance to get something close to the lowest fare. The more obscure your destination (Hanoi, Kathmandu etc), the earlier you should probably book. For more common destinations such as Tokyo, Singapore, and Bangkok, you have more time to wait.
North America to Middle East & Africa: 6 to 12 weeks is best
Another case where flight shoppers in 2019 can wait a bit longer to get a great deal than even a year ago, you should now be able to get a good fare to a place like Dubai, Abu Dhabi, or Cairo only 6 weeks or so out.
North America to South America: 5 to 16 weeks is cheapest
In 2019 there is a wider range for the lowest fares going from North America to South America. Many of these are not especially popular routes so there isn’t much competition on them. In cases like this it’s usually best to book early because if there is only one airline flying that route, you are vulnerable to a nasty surprise.
On short and popular routes, 3 to 4 weeks is usually fine
If you are flying on a very popular route, and especially a shorter one such as Los Angeles to Las Vegas or San Francisco, or New York to Washington DC, the window with the lowest fares is usually between 2 or 3 weeks and 8 weeks or so. Since so many people book these kinds of flights with little notice, you can usually get a very low fare even 3 weeks out.
Flights within Europe: Buy as early as possible
In reality the cheapest fares within Europe are almost all on the low-cost carriers such as Easyjet and RyanAir. If you are flying on any of those airlines, the fares ALWAYS start out cheap and get more expensive as more seats are sold. So the cheapest time to buy on a low-cost airline is NOW (or as soon as tickets go on sale, which is usually 11 months out).
Flying on a low-cost carrier (even to Europe): Buy now
As mentioned just above, if you are flying on one of the low-cost airlines, the seats go on sale about 11 months out at the lowest price, and they keep getting more expensive as each next group of seats are sold.
This is even true on Norwegian Airlines between the US and Europe. They offer the lowest fares in general on scores of popular routes, so if you are sure of your dates you should buy the tickets as soon as possible to lock in the lowest fare. They won’t be getting any cheaper.
Cheapest times of the year to fly
The trends above should be valid for flights for most of 2018 and into 2019, but there are a few times of the year that are always a bit cheaper than others. For this information we look to research from Rick Seaney of FareCompare, who has been doing this longer than anyone else.
Domestic US flights are cheapest
January 7 to March 5 (between Christmas Break and Spring Break)
April 18 to June 2 (between Spring Break and Summer travel season)
August 22 to mid December (most summer trips end and autumn is a slower season)
If you can fly in any of the periods mentioned above you are likely to get lower fares than if you fly during the traditionally busier periods.
US to Europe flights are cheapest
Before June and after mid August (summer season is by far the busiest, and it ends earlier than you might think)
Weekdays and especially Tuesdays and Wednesdays (Even more so than domestic travel, trans-Atlantic travelers like to travel Fridays through Sundays, so flying the other days will almost always be cheaper).
Cheapest time to book flights for Christmas and New Year's trips
According to a 2015 study by Skyscanner, the absolute cheapest time to book flights for the popular dates just before Christmas and New Years is August 10 to 16, at least based on their 2014 data. The study also shows that fares only inch up a bit in later August and into September, but that by early November the fares will be closer to their peak.
Previously we’d heard that it’s best to buy holiday flights as early as possible, which is usually 11 months out for most airlines. I think that’s still mostly true, partly because it will allow you to pick the best possible departure times in both directions. But if you aren’t quite so picky as to which time of day you leave and return, waiting until mid August seems like a decent idea and you’ll still get a relatively good fare.
Important exception: Book flights on low-cost airlines as early as possible, always
If you are thinking about booking a flight on a low-cost airline, such as Southwest or Spirit in the US, or EasyJet or Ryanair in Europe, or Air Asia in Asia, the cheapest fare will always be as early as you are ready to commit. Unlike the more traditional airlines, the low-cost carrier revenue model is based on starting with all seats as cheap as they’ll ever be when the flight is officially in the system. Then as seats are sold on that flight, the fare goes up as the plane is selling out. So maybe the first 20% of the seats are sold at the lowest price, and when those are gone, the next 20% are sold at a higher price, and so forth until all seats are sold or the plane takes off.
However, it’s important to consider the fact that “low-cost airlines” aren’t necessarily cheaper than their more traditional counterparts. Specifically, Southwest Airlines will often be more expensive than American or United, at least once the first group of cheap seats is gone. Also, since traditional airlines do in fact lower fares during the sweet spot of a few weeks to a few months before departure, you might find that waiting for those lower fares might be the best deal of all.
Flights are still often cheapest on Tuesdays and Wednesdays
There has been some confusion over the years about this fact, partly because some of the reporting has been about the day of the week the flight is booked rather than the day of the week the flight is taken. Some data showed that prices were higher for bookings on Tuesdays and Wednesdays and lower on Saturdays. The problem with this is that most business fares are booked on weekdays and those fares are higher, and most people buying on a Saturday are leisure travelers and they are price-sensitive so they only buy cheaper tickets.
My favorite trick for finding the best fares for an upcoming flight is to check for that route on a Wednesday and returning on a Wednesday. That will almost always show you the lowest possible fare, and then you can compare prices of other days of the week to see how much more you are willing to pay to fly on, say, a Friday or Saturday.
The advice: Check any and every day of the week, and if it’s the weekend you might want to wait a few more days to see if fares drop.
Why do airfares go up and down and up again as the day approaches?
Looking at the data above, you might think the airlines are playing some sort of game with flyers, but these pricing policies are actually a result of elaborate data and computer models that help them make the most money from each plane that leaves the ground. Here’s why:
People who buy plane tickets early are less price sensitive
In the world of economics they call this being “inelastic” in that in some situations consumers will buy almost exactly as many tickets, even if the price is higher. Airlines (obviously) want to maximize their profit for every seat they sell on the plane, so they take advantage of those who are driven to lock in early.
Consumers who buy early might:
- Already have set vacation days they want to use all of
- Be attending an event, such as a wedding, where there’s no flexibility
- Be someone who feels great stress until the ticket is locked in
In the above situations, whether a round-trip between Los Angeles and London is US$800 or US$1100, the person buying at least 3 months out is likely to buy either way. There is little incentive to airlines to sell a ticket for $800 if they’d sell almost as many at $1100.
People who buy plane tickets late are also less price sensitive
Similarly, consumers who are interested in flying 10 or fewer days from any given moment are also inelastic. They are likely to pay a premium for the convenience of going soon, so there’s little incentive for airlines to discount these tickets either.
Consumers who buy at the last minute might:
- Have just gotten approval for fixed time off soon
- Have an event on a fixed date (a football game, etc)
- Be someone who hates to commit to things early, and is willing to pay extra for the added flexibility
Now, keep in mind, that anyone who is hoping to fly in 10 days or fewer from now will see higher prices, and they’ll have the option of going 2 or 3 weeks later to save quite a bit of money. This price discrimination allows airlines to sell more expensive seats to those who can’t wait, and cheaper tickets to those who can.
What happened to cheap “last-minute” fares?
In reality, it’s always been difficult to find last-minute airfare bargains, at least to specific places you already want to visit. There are still examples of those weekly fare sales where an airline publishes a list of last minute bargain flights, but anyone who’s paid attention to them can see the problem.
They tend to offer cheap flights between obscure city pairs on the least popular travel dates. So if you are ready to fly between, say, Charlotte and Bermuda this coming Saturday and return the following Tuesday, those last-minute deals could be for you. But for most of us, they never appear for places we really want to go and at times we want to travel.
Why no last-minute deals, you might ask? Why are airlines willing to fly with empty seats instead of filling them for low prices?
The reason airlines don’t lower prices for unsold seats at the last minute is that the last thing they want to do is condition travelers to wait until the last minute, hoping for a bargain, and then sometimes not flying at all when a bargain doesn’t appear.
Think about it. If you wanted to go from Los Angeles to London at some point soon, and a round-trip next month is $900, but if you go in 2 days it’s only $650, you are likely to buy the cheap ticket two days from now, or skip it and hope that the same deal is available next month when you are ready to go.
Airlines make more money on each plane-load of people if they condition passengers into buying earlier at higher prices, or very early at even higher prices.
When to wait for fare sales
This all ties in with the economic principles above. You’ll notice fare sales by various airlines, and they usually appear in the middle of a season (summer, for example) trying to fill up seats for the rest of that season. In some cases they’ll announce an autumn fare sale in August, but it always tends to be for times of the year when the fewest people travel, namely, January through March plus October and November.
If you are waiting for a fare sale and wondering when it might appear, it’s important to consider the airlines’ motivation in announcing them. Let’s say they announced an October fare sale in June, with round-trip fares way lower than those offered in summer. That would actually cannibalize their business for July through September. If someone is considering paying a high fare to fly in August, the airlines are not motivated to show them a much lower fare if they waited. That would lead to empty seats in late summer, which would be very costly for them.
In almost all cases you are best off waiting until 6 weeks or so before your departure date, but it’s also important to track the fares before that, and keep an eye on fare sales.
This same research by the AP also said that fare sales usually appear on Tuesdays and are over by the end of Thursday, so check fares early in the week and if a price drops then jump on it. They also found the highest fares showed up for those searching on Saturdays and Sundays, so you might be best off just skipping the weekends for fare research anyway.
Hi Roger, I am flying from Richmond, VA to Cancun 10/22-10/2. The flights keep increasing and I’m trying to decide if I should book our wait to see if the price drops. Do you think it will come down? When should I book? Thank you!
Kim,
Your dates are a bit confusing, but assuming you are referring to late October, I think chances are very good that the fares will drop again. Not counting major holidays such as Christmas and Easter and such, fares to the Caribbean are usually cheapest only 2 or 3 weeks out. Of course, that’s a rule of thumb and not a guarantee, but late October is one of the slowest times of the year in that area, so I’d wait if I were you.
Another thing I’d suggest is check those same flights for dates leaving 2 or 3 weeks from now, and try out some other dates in between. If the fares are lower for the flights coming up shortly, you will probably see those fares or lower for your dates (because July and August are more popular than October in Cancun). However, if the flights for dates in July, August, and September, are all the same or higher than what you are seeing for October, you might want to buy soon. Best of luck with this. -Roger
Oops, I meant Oct. 22-29 but your answer is still relevant. I’m going to try to wait it out. Thanks so much for your help!
Hi Roger, I think I’ve come across your site for every vacation I’ve ever went on where I had to buy plane tickets 🙂 So here I am again asking another question. I’ve started planning a large group vacation to Iceland for either mid or late September of next year, flying either out of Los Angeles or San Diego (where most of us live).
I’ve checked some random months here and there since September isn’t even available yet. I’ve checkeda Icelandair and WOW Air, and they seem very high, priced at almost $900 to $1200 for Icelandair, or near $800 for WOW Air (with the added fees). Should I wait to see if Icelandair has better deals, or would it be best to stick with WOW Air once those months open up? I’m also a bit stuck given that accommodation is so hard to book in Iceland around the Ring Road (especially with a larger group). I’m stuck wondering if it is best to go ahead and book hotels (with cancellation) before flight and wait until plane prices fall down …. or do you think it is moot?
I know WOW Air just opened up the West Coast leg here this year, so there is no historical data for this, but I thought I’d ask you, the expert 🙂 Thanks again!
Hi Roger, when would be the best time to buy tickets at the lowest price from Brisbane, Australia to Entebbe, Uganda (East Africa) for travel date 30th December? Are the fares cheaper now or would they be cheaper in say October? (It will be summer in Australia at that time and most African students, expats and other people travel to Africa for the holidays in December).
Thanks
Charity,
I’d start checking those fares now, and probably try to buy within the next month or so, especially if you see a fare drop. The main factor at play is that December 30 is a really popular travel date around the world, as people are going home for the holidays, or returning from holidays. During periods like that, the airlines know that they can fill all the seats at fairly high prices, so it’s very rare for them to run sales. On the other hand, I doubt the fares will go up much until August or September, so you might have a bit of time to work with. Good luck on this. -Roger
We are traveling to a resort in Jamaica from Dallas in August (set dates). We have been looking at airfares for the past few months and the prices are high (over $700 for coach, with AA), do you think they will come down at all or should we just bite the bullet?
Joanne,
I just checked for flights from DFW to Montego Bay leaving in about two weeks and returning a week later. The cheapest fare I see is US$561 RT, but that’s on Spirit, so the fees would add quite a bit, and the legroom is horrible. American offers a US$783 RT on those dates, which is also nonstop, unlike the change in FLL on Spirit.
So long story short, unfortunately that seems like the going rate for those flights. I’m a bit surprised because that does seem quite high, as you can fly to Ireland for not too much more. August is a fairly busy month in Jamaica as well, although mostly with Europeans. Since you have fixed dates, and especially if those are popular weekend flights, I think the chances of fares coming down are low, and they might even go up a bit more if you don’t book soon. My best guess is that they’ll stay around this price for a while, but since it seems unlikely that they’ll go down, I’d buy soon if I were you. Sorry for the bad news. Have a great trip. -Roger
Hi Roger,
We are planning on visiting family in Savannah around the end of July and return 2/3 weeks later. I had seen flights last week around the £530 price which we thought was great, but having come back to look at flights again to book they have shot up to over £1000! Any idea why and will they go back to what they were last week anytime soon. we just cant afford go at that price.
Matt
Matt,
Assuming you are starting from London (or elsewhere in the UK), this is a tricky one. It’s very unusual that fares would nearly double about 7 weeks before a flight, but I think it would be equally unusual to have the fares go all the way back down to £530 for a July flight bought in mid June. My best guess is that the fare might drop back down at least a bit, or at least it shouldn’t keep going up from here anytime soon. But it’s hard to say.
I just ran fares on some dates in the range you mentioned, and I’m seeing the lowest fares at around £900 return, and those are for flights on Wednesdays both ways. At the moment, that is probably about the cheapest you’ll find, and it may not drop below that as the dates draw near.
Another unfortunate thing about this is Savannah is one of several small airports in part of the US where the only large airport is Atlanta, and Atlanta is always strangely expensive because it’s almost completely monopolized by Delta and its partners. Sorry to say, I think chances are low that flights on those dates will go below £800 from here on out, although it is possible. Best of luck. -Roger
What is a good time to buy a ticket from New York to Puerto Rico (any airport) if I want to travel from Dec 23rd or 24th 2016 to Jan 1st or 2nd 2017?
Ray,
Those are extremely popular travel dates for the busiest week of the year in Puerto Rico, so you should shop and buy as soon as possible. The airlines know they can sell every seat on those planes at high prices, so they have no incentive to lower them to fill them a bit sooner. The fare probably won’t start going up much for a couple more months, but I doubt it will go down at all, so buy as soon as you can. -Roger
Anyone familiar with NYC to Iceland flights? Please advise. We plan to fly from JFK to KEF around 2017 NYE. How soon I should book flights? Thanks,
Mark,
You are definitely going to want to do that via nonstop flight on Iceland Air because any other option would take WAY longer and probably cost more as well. Right now I see flights around that time are US$664 RT and up on Iceland Air. That’s actually not bad and it looks like the lowest they ever offer are US$509 RT. I found that on flights in mid January, which is really the dead season, so my guess is that those late December flights are already starting to fill up so you should think about buying fairly soon for the lowest fare.
I’ve tracked Iceland Air flights several times in the past and they seem to start low and then go up as more seats are sold, without bouncing up and down like most other large non-budget airlines. The thing is, Christmas week is huge for flights to everywhere because people are going home, and those Iceland flights are part of a busy route between the US and the rest of Europe. And NYE is also fairly popular as well. If you can go in early December or any time after January 10 or so, you can probably get it for around US$509. But for NYE week, you’ll pay more, and most likely the fares will eventually go up from here without going down in between. Best of luck. -Roger
Roger,
I have recently won two tickets to the Bahamas. But Im not going to have the money to go. And will have to use them within 30 days. But I’m not sure how much the tickets really are to sell them. Any suggestions?
Jess
Jessica,
The value of the tickets would obviously depend on the starting point. If they are from, say, Miami to Nassau, then they aren’t worth much, and you could easily check the value by checking current airfares between those cities. If they are from New York to Nassau they would be worth a bit more. But really the problem is that some airline tickets are non-transferable, and others require a fee that can be up to US$200 per ticket to change the name on them, so there isn’t much of a resale market for plane tickets.
If you have a voucher that hasn’t yet had a passenger name put on it, it could be worth a bit less than the current price of airfare from whatever departure city to the Bahamas. Check kayak.com for the most accurate prices. -Roger
Hi Roger, We are planning a trip from Chicago to St. Maarten from March 25- April 1, 2017. We are going with another family (they are going a day prior). They already booked their flights for just under $600/person. I have not been so lucky to find the same deal with any good times. Is it better to snag the first good deal I find or hold out until the budget airlines post their flights? I know this could be a busy time to travel due to spring breaks. Thanks so much!
Cindy,
This is a tricky one. Flights to the Caribbean are usually cheapest 2 or 3 weeks out, but Christmas and Spring Break weeks are going to be exceptions because the airlines know they can sell all of the seats at higher prices without discounting. Still, I’d bet that those fares will bounce around a bit for at least the next few months. Very few people buy airline tickets 10 months early, so I’m sure only a few seats on those planes have been sold as of now.
So if it were me I’d keep my eyes on the fares and check at least once a week, and at some point the fare might dip a bit. If you have exact flights you want to go on and those fares dip a bit, it’s a good time to buy. In other words, I really doubt the fares will keep going up and up and up and never back down starting now. It’s just too early for those flights to get more and more expensive. If the fares don’t come down at all by, say, October, it might be wise to just buy them anyway.
It’s always a bit of a gamble and if you are absolutely certain that you want to go and return on those days, it might be best to just buy now so you don’t have to worry about it. If you get lucky you might save maybe US$100 per person by checking every week and finding a dip. But you might not save any money, and sometimes the stress just isn’t worth it if you are sure you want to go. I hope this helps. -Roger
Hi Roger,
We have a family event confirmed for the week of Christmas in India and are planning to travel from the US to India. I have been looking at prices through Kayak.com and the best price I am getting is $1746. Based on your knowledge and research, do you think the prices will drop or should I go ahead and book my tickets. Any suggestions will be greatly appreciated?
SPat,
Generally speaking, flights around Christmas tend to start kind of high and just keep moving up. The airlines know that they can fill the seats without real discounts, so they almost never do offer them. Best of luck with this. -Roger
Hi, Roger!
My fiance and i will have destination wedding in cancun from nov 23rd to Nov 27th. the departure site is in New york. Now the price is up to $650. I am so frustrating now because i have to book the tickets for both parents. When is the best time to book ? too many ppl involved , i can not wait until the last 2 or 3 weeks. Any suggestion ?
Jenny,
This is a tough one because it’s obviously over Thanksgiving in the US, so it’s one of the busiest long weekends of the year and the airlines know they can sell these seats at high prices so they have little incentive to discount. In other words, I doubt the fares will come down for these specific dates, and most likely they will go up. My best guess is that they won’t go up soon and just keep going up and up. But still, due to the holiday involved, if it were me I’d just buy the tickets and focus on the rest of it. If you were going the weekend before or after, the fares would probably be lower and they might even go down. Best of luck and congrats on everything. -Roger