Flights are cheapest 5 to 16 weeks out in 2019: Here’s when to book

Trying to find the absolute cheapest airfare for a trip you are planning is like playing a game that feels too easy to lose. Now in this era of ‘big data’ where many companies are able to check airfares on every route every day to calculate the cheapest possible time to buy, it’s finally a bit easier.

Only a few years ago the advice was often to buy between 4 and 6 weeks out, but things have changed and it really depends on where you are going. As you’ll see in the 2019 update below, the window for buying the cheapest fares starts earlier these days and buying about 4 months out often leads to the best deals. We’ve summarized a variety of studies below and with a quick scan you should be able to get some insight on when to buy and when to wait.

Note: This article was first published in 2012, and has been updated and revised each year as new information has come out, most recently in February, 2019.

2019 UPDATE: The data for 2018 has been similar to 2016 and 2017, but it's still complicated

As of 2019 there are quite a few different companies that are analyzing millions of airfare purchases in order to find the money-saving trends. They tend to show the same pattern, which is that buying two or four months early is the sweet spot for most tickets.

For the tests we ran below we used the very helpful tool from Cheapair.com.

Summary: Buying air tickets earlier will usually save you money

In years past the sweet spot for buying cheap tickets often didn’t start until 6 to 8 weeks before the flight, but the data from 2018 shows once again that the cheaper airfares are now usually available starting 4 to 6 months out in many cases. In other words, if you are sure you want to fly on particular dates, you can usually get something close to the lowest possible fare if you book almost half a year out.

Another interesting thing about the data is that once you reach the beginning of that “sweet spot” where fares are near their low for any given flight, they still bounce around by up to US$50 over the next couple of months before they start heading higher as the flight approaches. So the best strategy is to set an alert for fare decreases on the route that you are shopping for, and buy as soon as you get one of those dips.

North America to Europe: 7 to 16 weeks out is usually the sweet spot

The optimal purchase window varies a bit depending on your departure and arrival cities, but generally speaking if you are flying between North America and Europe then the fares will be close to their lowest about 16 weeks out and you usually (but not always) don’t have to worry about them shooting up until about 7 weeks out.

As long as you are within that 16-week window, the longer you wait the greater the chance that the fares will start jumping up for good. This is especially true for popular travel periods such as July and August. In spring and autumn you can usually get away with waiting a bit longer.

>>>Cheapest Europe cities to fly into from US and Canada

North America to the Caribbean: Book 3 to 12 weeks out

The great news is that if you want to go to a Caribbean hot spot such as Cancun, San Juan, or Nassau, you can often get the lowest fares only 2 or 3 weeks out. You can book as early as 10 to 12 weeks out and lock in the best fares, but they usually don’t go any lower than that so waiting longer isn’t really advisable if you are sure when you want to go.

The Caribbean hurricanes in 2017 won’t change anything, in case you were curious. The islands that were affected most are all small islands that only got a small percentage of Caribbean flights in the first place. The busy airports such as CancunPunta Cana, and even San Juan, Puerto Rico (which has fully recovered) should carry on the same as before when it comes to airfare windows.

>>>Cheapest Caribbean islands and destinations

North America to Asia/Pacific: 8 to 20 weeks is cheapest

As of 2016 it was necessary to book long flights between North America and Asia almost half a year in advance for the lowest fares, but in 2017 and into 2018 it seems that you can book between about 8 and 20 weeks to get something close to the lowest possible price on any flight. Generally speaking, the longer the flight the earlier that people book it, so it’s wise to book as soon as you are sure of your dates.

The good news is that you no longer have to book so far in advance to get something close to the lowest fare. The more obscure your destination (Hanoi, Kathmandu etc), the earlier you should probably book. For more common destinations such as Tokyo, Singapore, and Bangkok, you have more time to wait.

>>>Cheapest Asia cities to fly into from the US and Canada

North America to Middle East & Africa: 6 to 12 weeks is best

Another case where flight shoppers in 2019 can wait a bit longer to get a great deal than even a year ago, you should now be able to get a good fare to a place like Dubai, Abu Dhabi, or Cairo only 6 weeks or so out.

North America to South America: 5 to 16 weeks is cheapest

In 2019 there is a wider range for the lowest fares going from North America to South America. Many of these are not especially popular routes so there isn’t much competition on them. In cases like this it’s usually best to book early because if there is only one airline flying that route, you are vulnerable to a nasty surprise.

On short and popular routes, 3 to 4 weeks is usually fine

If you are flying on a very popular route, and especially a shorter one such as Los Angeles to Las Vegas or San Francisco, or New York to Washington DC, the window with the lowest fares is usually between 2 or 3 weeks and 8 weeks or so. Since so many people book these kinds of flights with little notice, you can usually get a very low fare even 3 weeks out.

Flights within Europe: Buy as early as possible

In reality the cheapest fares within Europe are almost all on the low-cost carriers such as Easyjet and RyanAir. If you are flying on any of those airlines, the fares ALWAYS start out cheap and get more expensive as more seats are sold. So the cheapest time to buy on a low-cost airline is NOW (or as soon as tickets go on sale, which is usually 11 months out).

Flying on a low-cost carrier (even to Europe): Buy now

As mentioned just above, if you are flying on one of the low-cost airlines, the seats go on sale about 11 months out at the lowest price, and they keep getting more expensive as each next group of seats are sold.

This is even true on Norwegian Airlines between the US and Europe. They offer the lowest fares in general on scores of popular routes, so if you are sure of your dates you should buy the tickets as soon as possible to lock in the lowest fare. They won’t be getting any cheaper.

Cheapest times of the year to fly

The trends above should be valid for flights for most of 2018 and into 2019, but there are a few times of the year that are always a bit cheaper than others. For this information we look to research from Rick Seaney of FareCompare, who has been doing this longer than anyone else.

Domestic US flights are cheapest

January 7 to March 5 (between Christmas Break and Spring Break)

April 18 to June 2 (between Spring Break and Summer travel season)

August 22 to mid December (most summer trips end and autumn is a slower season)

If you can fly in any of the periods mentioned above you are likely to get lower fares than if you fly during the traditionally busier periods.

US to Europe flights are cheapest

Before June and after mid August (summer season is by far the busiest, and it ends earlier than you might think)

Weekdays and especially Tuesdays and Wednesdays (Even more so than domestic travel, trans-Atlantic travelers like to travel Fridays through Sundays, so flying the other days will almost always be cheaper).

Cheapest time to book flights for Christmas and New Year's trips

According to a 2015 study by Skyscanner, the absolute cheapest time to book flights for the popular dates just before Christmas and New Years is August 10 to 16, at least based on their 2014 data. The study also shows that fares only inch up a bit in later August and into September, but that by early November the fares will be closer to their peak.

Previously we’d heard that it’s best to buy holiday flights as early as possible, which is usually 11 months out for most airlines. I think that’s still mostly true, partly because it will allow you to pick the best possible departure times in both directions. But if you aren’t quite so picky as to which time of day you leave and return, waiting until mid August seems like a decent idea and you’ll still get a relatively good fare.

Important exception: Book flights on low-cost airlines as early as possible, always

If you are thinking about booking a flight on a low-cost airline, such as Southwest or Spirit in the US, or EasyJet or Ryanair in Europe, or Air Asia in Asia, the cheapest fare will always be as early as you are ready to commit. Unlike the more traditional airlines, the low-cost carrier revenue model is based on starting with all seats as cheap as they’ll ever be when the flight is officially in the system. Then as seats are sold on that flight, the fare goes up as the plane is selling out. So maybe the first 20% of the seats are sold at the lowest price, and when those are gone, the next 20% are sold at a higher price, and so forth until all seats are sold or the plane takes off.

However, it’s important to consider the fact that “low-cost airlines” aren’t necessarily cheaper than their more traditional counterparts. Specifically, Southwest Airlines will often be more expensive than American or United, at least once the first group of cheap seats is gone. Also, since traditional airlines do in fact lower fares during the sweet spot of a few weeks to a few months before departure, you might find that waiting for those lower fares might be the best deal of all.

Flights are still often cheapest on Tuesdays and Wednesdays

There has been some confusion over the years about this fact, partly because some of the reporting has been about the day of the week the flight is booked rather than the day of the week the flight is taken. Some data showed that prices were higher for bookings on Tuesdays and Wednesdays and lower on Saturdays. The problem with this is that most business fares are booked on weekdays and those fares are higher, and most people buying on a Saturday are leisure travelers and they are price-sensitive so they only buy cheaper tickets.

My favorite trick for finding the best fares for an upcoming flight is to check for that route on a Wednesday and returning on a Wednesday. That will almost always show you the lowest possible fare, and then you can compare prices of other days of the week to see how much more you are willing to pay to fly on, say, a Friday or Saturday.

The advice: Check any and every day of the week, and if it’s the weekend you might want to wait a few more days to see if fares drop.

Why do airfares go up and down and up again as the day approaches?

Looking at the data above, you might think the airlines are playing some sort of game with flyers, but these pricing policies are actually a result of elaborate data and computer models that help them make the most money from each plane that leaves the ground. Here’s why:

People who buy plane tickets early are less price sensitive

In the world of economics they call this being “inelastic” in that in some situations consumers will buy almost exactly as many tickets, even if the price is higher. Airlines (obviously) want to maximize their profit for every seat they sell on the plane, so they take advantage of those who are driven to lock in early.

Consumers who buy early might:

  • Already have set vacation days they want to use all of
  • Be attending an event, such as a wedding, where there’s no flexibility
  • Be someone who feels great stress until the ticket is locked in

In the above situations, whether a round-trip between Los Angeles and London is US$800 or US$1100, the person buying at least 3 months out is likely to buy either way. There is little incentive to airlines to sell a ticket for $800 if they’d sell almost as many at $1100.

People who buy plane tickets late are also less price sensitive

Similarly, consumers who are interested in flying 10 or fewer days from any given moment are also inelastic. They are likely to pay a premium for the convenience of going soon, so there’s little incentive for airlines to discount these tickets either.

Consumers who buy at the last minute might:

  • Have just gotten approval for fixed time off soon
  • Have an event on a fixed date (a football game, etc)
  • Be someone who hates to commit to things early, and is willing to pay extra for the added flexibility

Now, keep in mind, that anyone who is hoping to fly in 10 days or fewer from now will see higher prices, and they’ll have the option of going 2 or 3 weeks later to save quite a bit of money. This price discrimination allows airlines to sell more expensive seats to those who can’t wait, and cheaper tickets to those who can.

What happened to cheap “last-minute” fares?

In reality, it’s always been difficult to find last-minute airfare bargains, at least to specific places you already want to visit. There are still examples of those weekly fare sales where an airline publishes a list of last minute bargain flights, but anyone who’s paid attention to them can see the problem.

They tend to offer cheap flights between obscure city pairs on the least popular travel dates. So if you are ready to fly between, say, Charlotte and Bermuda this coming Saturday and return the following Tuesday, those last-minute deals could be for you. But for most of us, they never appear for places we really want to go and at times we want to travel.

Why no last-minute deals, you might ask? Why are airlines willing to fly with empty seats instead of filling them for low prices?

The reason airlines don’t lower prices for unsold seats at the last minute is that the last thing they want to do is condition travelers to wait until the last minute, hoping for a bargain, and then sometimes not flying at all when a bargain doesn’t appear.

Think about it. If you wanted to go from Los Angeles to London at some point soon, and a round-trip next month is $900, but if you go in 2 days it’s only $650, you are likely to buy the cheap ticket two days from now, or skip it and hope that the same deal is available next month when you are ready to go.

Airlines make more money on each plane-load of people if they condition passengers into buying earlier at higher prices, or very early at even higher prices.

When to wait for fare sales

This all ties in with the economic principles above. You’ll notice fare sales by various airlines, and they usually appear in the middle of a season (summer, for example) trying to fill up seats for the rest of that season. In some cases they’ll announce an autumn fare sale in August, but it always tends to be for times of the year when the fewest people travel, namely, January through March plus October and November.

If you are waiting for a fare sale and wondering when it might appear, it’s important to consider the airlines’ motivation in announcing them. Let’s say they announced an October fare sale in June, with round-trip fares way lower than those offered in summer. That would actually cannibalize their business for July through September. If someone is considering paying a high fare to fly in August, the airlines are not motivated to show them a much lower fare if they waited. That would lead to empty seats in late summer, which would be very costly for them.

In almost all cases you are best off waiting until 6 weeks or so before your departure date, but it’s also important to track the fares before that, and keep an eye on fare sales.

This same research by the AP also said that fare sales usually appear on Tuesdays and are over by the end of Thursday, so check fares early in the week and if a price drops then jump on it. They also found the highest fares showed up for those searching on Saturdays and Sundays, so you might be best off just skipping the weekends for fare research anyway.

Check multiple websites at once to find the cheapest fares

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All Comments

  1. Carlos says:

    When is the best time to buy 4 tickets from Miami to Barcelona for travel in June? What is average airfare for this flight? on the low end.

    1. Roger Wade says:

      Carlos,

      According to the most recent data, the flights on that route have been at their cheapest about 4 to 5 months out, so probably February would be best for that trip. It says that the cheapest round-trips have been right around US$900, but June is a busier than average month so you might have to pay more than that. I think as long as you buy before April you will probably get something close to the best fare. Have a great trip. -Roger

  2. crismerolin says:

    Hello, I’m planning on traveling to the Dominican Republic on Dec 20 to January 2. from NYC, but prices are way too expensive, should I just wait a little longer to see if prices go down

    1. Roger Wade says:

      Crismerolin,

      Those are prime Christmas travel dates and they typically don’t come down in price as the dates approach. The airlines know that they can fill those seats at high prices, so they have no incentive to make deals, unfortunately. Best of luck on this. -Roger

  3. Philip says:

    Thanks Roger, do you anticipate with the recent storm in Puerto Rico, that airlines will be putting flights on sale to entice, at some point, travelers once the area is open for air travel?

    1. Roger Wade says:

      Philip,

      I’m not really sure about that, but my guess would be that airlines wouldn’t do anything special. Unfortunately for the rest of us, they don’t have anything to gain by Puerto Rico getting back on its feet, so they don’t have incentives to offer discounts. If anything they will probably just shift flights to other islands and destinations around the region, and only add more flights when Puerto Rico demand picks back up again. -Roger

  4. Philip says:

    I am booked on a cruise that originates out of San Juan, Puerto Rico. If RCCL were to cancel the cruise, would American Airlines refund my airfare?

    1. Roger Wade says:

      Philip,

      You’d have to contact American Airlines for that, unfortunately. I know the airlines are being unusually flexible when dealing with the storm situation, but I am not sure what they’d do with that. Fingers crossed that you don’t need to cancel and good luck. -Roger

  5. Ron Young says:

    Hello Roger…your column is very informative. I wanted to know for a one way ticket from NY to Kingston Jamaica…what’s your advise on the lowest possible fare for travel on Dec 15

    1. Roger Wade says:

      Ron,

      This is an interesting one. The data for NYC to Kingston says that the earlier you buy the better, period, and that is very rare. Evidently that route is served primarily by low-cost carriers or at least airlines that act like low-cost carriers in that fares start out low and get higher as more seats are sold on each flight. Fortunately, they don’t seem to get too high even at the last minute, but still I would recommend buying as soon as you can. -Roger

  6. Cindy Wolak says:

    We have a wedding to attend in Belize and need to fly from MSP to Belize City, 3/9/18, return 3/15/18. I will need six tickets. I’m wondering with all of the hurricane damage in the Caribbean, will people look to vacation this winter in other locales, such as Belize, will this affect pricing? Can you recommend when I should book?

    1. Roger Wade says:

      Cindy,

      It’s hard to say what the storms will do to travel patterns this upcoming winter and spring. Since March is completely outside of hurricane season, my guess would be that people will still be going to the popular islands, except for the ones that had resorts damaged severely. So I’d guess that Belize will be the same as last year.

      It looks like fares for that route are usually lowest from about 6 to 12 weeks out, so I think waiting makes sense for now. Since you have specific dates that you want, I would just keep watching fares and then jump on it when you see it drop. Best of luck on this. -Roger

  7. CC says:

    I think my situation is somewhat similar to that of Harshita (August 10, 6:04 AM). I’m also thinking of traveling in December.

    The differences are:

    1) I’d be going from HKG to NYC on or around December 18.

    2) I don’t know when I’d return, so I’m wondering if it’s better to buy a one-way or roundtrip ticket. Since I have the right of abode in both places, I don’t have to buy a roundtrip ticket.

    So far, the cheapest one-way ticket I’ve found for December 18 costs just over US$500. Can I do better than that? If yes, when is the best time between now and December 18 to buy the ticket? Thanks.

    1. Roger Wade says:

      CC,

      In my experience, tickets between North America and Asia are usually priced as segments so a round-trip is usually the same price as two one-ways. In fact, in a couple hours I’m leaving for an LAX to Seoul flight and I’m flying back on a different airline from Shanghai to the US.

      I’d probably buy that ticket soon. That date is close enough to Christmas that the airlines are unlikely to lower fares since they know they will eventually sell it at a high price. And $500 for that one-way sounds pretty good to me. You should check fares in early December or late January, and those will likely be the lowest you’ll find. If they are close to $500 then that is about the best you’ll do. Best of luck with this. -Roger

  8. Rhiannon says:

    Good evening! I’ve read through some of the previous posts but haven’t seen much about Thailand! We want to travel to Bangkok from Denver in late January to early February 2018 (flexible dates). I was looking last week and then again today and it looks like prices have gone up quite a bit in one week. When is the best time to buy? When are the best days to fly out? Any help or advice would be awesome. Thanks in advance!!

    1. Roger Wade says:

      Rhiannon,

      It looks like for Denver to Bangkok the ticket prices usually stay steady and low until about 4 months out and then they start climbing. But they tend not to climb too fast, so if there was a recent fare bump it’s still possible that it’ll come back down again soon. Still, I wouldn’t wait too long. Good luck on this. -Roger

  9. Veronica says:

    Hi. I’ll be going from Seattle to Orlando from October 27th to October 31st. Do you think prices might lower in the next week or 2 or should I purchase ASAP? I’m currently at $700ish for (2) people round trip.

    1. Roger Wade says:

      Veronica,

      According to the data for that route, US$350 round-trip per person is just about as low as that fare will get. It looks like the bottom tends to be about 11 weeks out and most likely it’ll start going up soon. In other words, buy now. Have a great trip. -Roger

  10. Sheena says:

    I am looking to go to Mauritius from Winnipeg on June 6th 2018. Right now emirates fare is $4053 for 3 person(2 toddlers under 4 & 1 adult) one way. Do you think the price will rise or fall? When do you think I should buy the tickets? Thank you

    1. Roger Wade says:

      Sheena,

      I just checked that route for dates in mid January and they are going for around US$1,200 per adult, round-trip on Air France. My best guess is that you can get something closer to that price if you wait until after the first of the year. The lowest fares on routes like that tend to be between 3 and 5 months out, so we are much too early now. Since it’s a June trip and more people want to travel in June, you might not get US$1,200, but I would guess that it’ll be quite a bit lower than it is now. Best of luck on this. -Roger