Flights are cheapest 5 to 16 weeks out in 2019: Here’s when to book

Trying to find the absolute cheapest airfare for a trip you are planning is like playing a game that feels too easy to lose. Now in this era of ‘big data’ where many companies are able to check airfares on every route every day to calculate the cheapest possible time to buy, it’s finally a bit easier.

Only a few years ago the advice was often to buy between 4 and 6 weeks out, but things have changed and it really depends on where you are going. As you’ll see in the 2019 update below, the window for buying the cheapest fares starts earlier these days and buying about 4 months out often leads to the best deals. We’ve summarized a variety of studies below and with a quick scan you should be able to get some insight on when to buy and when to wait.

Note: This article was first published in 2012, and has been updated and revised each year as new information has come out, most recently in February, 2019.

2019 UPDATE: The data for 2018 has been similar to 2016 and 2017, but it's still complicated

As of 2019 there are quite a few different companies that are analyzing millions of airfare purchases in order to find the money-saving trends. They tend to show the same pattern, which is that buying two or four months early is the sweet spot for most tickets.

For the tests we ran below we used the very helpful tool from Cheapair.com.

Summary: Buying air tickets earlier will usually save you money

In years past the sweet spot for buying cheap tickets often didn’t start until 6 to 8 weeks before the flight, but the data from 2018 shows once again that the cheaper airfares are now usually available starting 4 to 6 months out in many cases. In other words, if you are sure you want to fly on particular dates, you can usually get something close to the lowest possible fare if you book almost half a year out.

Another interesting thing about the data is that once you reach the beginning of that “sweet spot” where fares are near their low for any given flight, they still bounce around by up to US$50 over the next couple of months before they start heading higher as the flight approaches. So the best strategy is to set an alert for fare decreases on the route that you are shopping for, and buy as soon as you get one of those dips.

North America to Europe: 7 to 16 weeks out is usually the sweet spot

The optimal purchase window varies a bit depending on your departure and arrival cities, but generally speaking if you are flying between North America and Europe then the fares will be close to their lowest about 16 weeks out and you usually (but not always) don’t have to worry about them shooting up until about 7 weeks out.

As long as you are within that 16-week window, the longer you wait the greater the chance that the fares will start jumping up for good. This is especially true for popular travel periods such as July and August. In spring and autumn you can usually get away with waiting a bit longer.

>>>Cheapest Europe cities to fly into from US and Canada

North America to the Caribbean: Book 3 to 12 weeks out

The great news is that if you want to go to a Caribbean hot spot such as Cancun, San Juan, or Nassau, you can often get the lowest fares only 2 or 3 weeks out. You can book as early as 10 to 12 weeks out and lock in the best fares, but they usually don’t go any lower than that so waiting longer isn’t really advisable if you are sure when you want to go.

The Caribbean hurricanes in 2017 won’t change anything, in case you were curious. The islands that were affected most are all small islands that only got a small percentage of Caribbean flights in the first place. The busy airports such as CancunPunta Cana, and even San Juan, Puerto Rico (which has fully recovered) should carry on the same as before when it comes to airfare windows.

>>>Cheapest Caribbean islands and destinations

North America to Asia/Pacific: 8 to 20 weeks is cheapest

As of 2016 it was necessary to book long flights between North America and Asia almost half a year in advance for the lowest fares, but in 2017 and into 2018 it seems that you can book between about 8 and 20 weeks to get something close to the lowest possible price on any flight. Generally speaking, the longer the flight the earlier that people book it, so it’s wise to book as soon as you are sure of your dates.

The good news is that you no longer have to book so far in advance to get something close to the lowest fare. The more obscure your destination (Hanoi, Kathmandu etc), the earlier you should probably book. For more common destinations such as Tokyo, Singapore, and Bangkok, you have more time to wait.

>>>Cheapest Asia cities to fly into from the US and Canada

North America to Middle East & Africa: 6 to 12 weeks is best

Another case where flight shoppers in 2019 can wait a bit longer to get a great deal than even a year ago, you should now be able to get a good fare to a place like Dubai, Abu Dhabi, or Cairo only 6 weeks or so out.

North America to South America: 5 to 16 weeks is cheapest

In 2019 there is a wider range for the lowest fares going from North America to South America. Many of these are not especially popular routes so there isn’t much competition on them. In cases like this it’s usually best to book early because if there is only one airline flying that route, you are vulnerable to a nasty surprise.

On short and popular routes, 3 to 4 weeks is usually fine

If you are flying on a very popular route, and especially a shorter one such as Los Angeles to Las Vegas or San Francisco, or New York to Washington DC, the window with the lowest fares is usually between 2 or 3 weeks and 8 weeks or so. Since so many people book these kinds of flights with little notice, you can usually get a very low fare even 3 weeks out.

Flights within Europe: Buy as early as possible

In reality the cheapest fares within Europe are almost all on the low-cost carriers such as Easyjet and RyanAir. If you are flying on any of those airlines, the fares ALWAYS start out cheap and get more expensive as more seats are sold. So the cheapest time to buy on a low-cost airline is NOW (or as soon as tickets go on sale, which is usually 11 months out).

Flying on a low-cost carrier (even to Europe): Buy now

As mentioned just above, if you are flying on one of the low-cost airlines, the seats go on sale about 11 months out at the lowest price, and they keep getting more expensive as each next group of seats are sold.

This is even true on Norwegian Airlines between the US and Europe. They offer the lowest fares in general on scores of popular routes, so if you are sure of your dates you should buy the tickets as soon as possible to lock in the lowest fare. They won’t be getting any cheaper.

Cheapest times of the year to fly

The trends above should be valid for flights for most of 2018 and into 2019, but there are a few times of the year that are always a bit cheaper than others. For this information we look to research from Rick Seaney of FareCompare, who has been doing this longer than anyone else.

Domestic US flights are cheapest

January 7 to March 5 (between Christmas Break and Spring Break)

April 18 to June 2 (between Spring Break and Summer travel season)

August 22 to mid December (most summer trips end and autumn is a slower season)

If you can fly in any of the periods mentioned above you are likely to get lower fares than if you fly during the traditionally busier periods.

US to Europe flights are cheapest

Before June and after mid August (summer season is by far the busiest, and it ends earlier than you might think)

Weekdays and especially Tuesdays and Wednesdays (Even more so than domestic travel, trans-Atlantic travelers like to travel Fridays through Sundays, so flying the other days will almost always be cheaper).

Cheapest time to book flights for Christmas and New Year's trips

According to a 2015 study by Skyscanner, the absolute cheapest time to book flights for the popular dates just before Christmas and New Years is August 10 to 16, at least based on their 2014 data. The study also shows that fares only inch up a bit in later August and into September, but that by early November the fares will be closer to their peak.

Previously we’d heard that it’s best to buy holiday flights as early as possible, which is usually 11 months out for most airlines. I think that’s still mostly true, partly because it will allow you to pick the best possible departure times in both directions. But if you aren’t quite so picky as to which time of day you leave and return, waiting until mid August seems like a decent idea and you’ll still get a relatively good fare.

Important exception: Book flights on low-cost airlines as early as possible, always

If you are thinking about booking a flight on a low-cost airline, such as Southwest or Spirit in the US, or EasyJet or Ryanair in Europe, or Air Asia in Asia, the cheapest fare will always be as early as you are ready to commit. Unlike the more traditional airlines, the low-cost carrier revenue model is based on starting with all seats as cheap as they’ll ever be when the flight is officially in the system. Then as seats are sold on that flight, the fare goes up as the plane is selling out. So maybe the first 20% of the seats are sold at the lowest price, and when those are gone, the next 20% are sold at a higher price, and so forth until all seats are sold or the plane takes off.

However, it’s important to consider the fact that “low-cost airlines” aren’t necessarily cheaper than their more traditional counterparts. Specifically, Southwest Airlines will often be more expensive than American or United, at least once the first group of cheap seats is gone. Also, since traditional airlines do in fact lower fares during the sweet spot of a few weeks to a few months before departure, you might find that waiting for those lower fares might be the best deal of all.

Flights are still often cheapest on Tuesdays and Wednesdays

There has been some confusion over the years about this fact, partly because some of the reporting has been about the day of the week the flight is booked rather than the day of the week the flight is taken. Some data showed that prices were higher for bookings on Tuesdays and Wednesdays and lower on Saturdays. The problem with this is that most business fares are booked on weekdays and those fares are higher, and most people buying on a Saturday are leisure travelers and they are price-sensitive so they only buy cheaper tickets.

My favorite trick for finding the best fares for an upcoming flight is to check for that route on a Wednesday and returning on a Wednesday. That will almost always show you the lowest possible fare, and then you can compare prices of other days of the week to see how much more you are willing to pay to fly on, say, a Friday or Saturday.

The advice: Check any and every day of the week, and if it’s the weekend you might want to wait a few more days to see if fares drop.

Why do airfares go up and down and up again as the day approaches?

Looking at the data above, you might think the airlines are playing some sort of game with flyers, but these pricing policies are actually a result of elaborate data and computer models that help them make the most money from each plane that leaves the ground. Here’s why:

People who buy plane tickets early are less price sensitive

In the world of economics they call this being “inelastic” in that in some situations consumers will buy almost exactly as many tickets, even if the price is higher. Airlines (obviously) want to maximize their profit for every seat they sell on the plane, so they take advantage of those who are driven to lock in early.

Consumers who buy early might:

  • Already have set vacation days they want to use all of
  • Be attending an event, such as a wedding, where there’s no flexibility
  • Be someone who feels great stress until the ticket is locked in

In the above situations, whether a round-trip between Los Angeles and London is US$800 or US$1100, the person buying at least 3 months out is likely to buy either way. There is little incentive to airlines to sell a ticket for $800 if they’d sell almost as many at $1100.

People who buy plane tickets late are also less price sensitive

Similarly, consumers who are interested in flying 10 or fewer days from any given moment are also inelastic. They are likely to pay a premium for the convenience of going soon, so there’s little incentive for airlines to discount these tickets either.

Consumers who buy at the last minute might:

  • Have just gotten approval for fixed time off soon
  • Have an event on a fixed date (a football game, etc)
  • Be someone who hates to commit to things early, and is willing to pay extra for the added flexibility

Now, keep in mind, that anyone who is hoping to fly in 10 days or fewer from now will see higher prices, and they’ll have the option of going 2 or 3 weeks later to save quite a bit of money. This price discrimination allows airlines to sell more expensive seats to those who can’t wait, and cheaper tickets to those who can.

What happened to cheap “last-minute” fares?

In reality, it’s always been difficult to find last-minute airfare bargains, at least to specific places you already want to visit. There are still examples of those weekly fare sales where an airline publishes a list of last minute bargain flights, but anyone who’s paid attention to them can see the problem.

They tend to offer cheap flights between obscure city pairs on the least popular travel dates. So if you are ready to fly between, say, Charlotte and Bermuda this coming Saturday and return the following Tuesday, those last-minute deals could be for you. But for most of us, they never appear for places we really want to go and at times we want to travel.

Why no last-minute deals, you might ask? Why are airlines willing to fly with empty seats instead of filling them for low prices?

The reason airlines don’t lower prices for unsold seats at the last minute is that the last thing they want to do is condition travelers to wait until the last minute, hoping for a bargain, and then sometimes not flying at all when a bargain doesn’t appear.

Think about it. If you wanted to go from Los Angeles to London at some point soon, and a round-trip next month is $900, but if you go in 2 days it’s only $650, you are likely to buy the cheap ticket two days from now, or skip it and hope that the same deal is available next month when you are ready to go.

Airlines make more money on each plane-load of people if they condition passengers into buying earlier at higher prices, or very early at even higher prices.

When to wait for fare sales

This all ties in with the economic principles above. You’ll notice fare sales by various airlines, and they usually appear in the middle of a season (summer, for example) trying to fill up seats for the rest of that season. In some cases they’ll announce an autumn fare sale in August, but it always tends to be for times of the year when the fewest people travel, namely, January through March plus October and November.

If you are waiting for a fare sale and wondering when it might appear, it’s important to consider the airlines’ motivation in announcing them. Let’s say they announced an October fare sale in June, with round-trip fares way lower than those offered in summer. That would actually cannibalize their business for July through September. If someone is considering paying a high fare to fly in August, the airlines are not motivated to show them a much lower fare if they waited. That would lead to empty seats in late summer, which would be very costly for them.

In almost all cases you are best off waiting until 6 weeks or so before your departure date, but it’s also important to track the fares before that, and keep an eye on fare sales.

This same research by the AP also said that fare sales usually appear on Tuesdays and are over by the end of Thursday, so check fares early in the week and if a price drops then jump on it. They also found the highest fares showed up for those searching on Saturdays and Sundays, so you might be best off just skipping the weekends for fare research anyway.

Check multiple websites at once to find the cheapest fares

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All Comments

  1. Windsor says:

    Hi Roger,

    I’ve taken your advice to wait for a cheaper one-way flight from Cancun to Toronto departing the last week of August. I’ve waited and the prices seem to have continued to climb. Should I worry or wait? Should I worry that prices will continue to climb as it will be high travel season for the last week of August? Thanks for your continuous help!

    1. Roger Wade says:

      Windsor,

      As I might have mentioned before, Cancun is part of the Caribbean when it comes to its airfare market, and the studies show that the lowest fares tend to be only a few weeks out. August is high season in Toronto, but not in Cancun so it seems unlikely that those planes are actually filling up at this point. I know how this feels though, to try to save money and instead see prices rising.

      My best guess is that fares will actually dip. In fact, I just checked and got fares starting at US$235 (with 2 stops) for that flight on a Wednesday late in August, and for a Wednesday three weeks from now I am seeing fares starting at US$179 with only one stop. So the pattern seems to be holding even now, and in late August it’s likely to be even less busy. In other words, I still think time is on your side, and 3 weeks before the flight is probably going to be the sweet spot, as long as you can keep your sanity between now and then. Best of luck. -Roger

  2. Lydia says:

    Hi Roger,

    I am planning to a trip from LA to Chicago and wanting to leave on December 30 and spend the New Year there. Since it will be winter season, I am thinking the airfare will be low. However, it is during holiday, so I am not sure when will be a good time to book my ticket. Any suggestions?

    1. Roger Wade says:

      Lydia,

      Regardless of the weather, that flight on December 30 will be in high demand because so many people like to go visit friends for New Year’s, and also there will be thousands of Chicago residents who went to Los Angeles for Christmas who are heading home then. In other words, it’s the type of flight that is likely to just keep getting more expensive the longer you wait. However, if you are flying back to LA a week or two later, the demand for that part shouldn’t be so bad. Still, I think you are best off buying those tickets as soon as you are sure you are going because it seems much more likely that fares will go up instead of down. Best of luck. -Roger

  3. Iurie says:

    Beside the fact that this article provides good tips and hints, I got impressed by all this helpful comments from Roger, cause I don’t remember any site that provides such detailed answers and explanation.
    Great approach, great attitude.

    P.S. Roger, how can I contact You?
    (That’s nice of you to say. You can reach me at either of the email addresses on the Contact Us page, linked in the footer of every page. -Roger)

  4. Melissa says:

    We are a family of six going to Rome on dec 20th thru dec 30th this year. I looked at flights in March and they were about 1400 per for direct. I have been watching the flights and they are climbing – now at $1600 per. Do you think they might come down or should we just book them. I considered going with one stop to save some money, however seeing the winter we just had and all the flight cancellations, I thought it would be difficult if we encountered delays or missed the connecting flight to find 6 available seats. What do you think?

    1. Roger Wade says:

      Melissa,

      Sadly, the most notable exception to the “fares cheapest 1 or 2 months out” advice is a flight around a major holiday. The airlines are obviously aware that huge numbers of people want to fly somewhere before Christmas and back after Christmas, so the fare studies show that prices just keep going up. A big reason why fares go down with a month or two to go, is that travelers can go a week or two later if flights on their first choice dates are too high. But for flights around big holidays, they know that going a week or two later isn’t an option.

      A recent test I did with trans-Atlantic flights showed that non-stops are now MUCH more expensive than flights with a change of planes, so you will also pay a premium if you want the shortest possible flight with the smallest chance of a disruption. Personally, I think the flight delays at connecting airports are just really bad luck, and not an ongoing trend that will get worse and worse. Whether the higher fare is worth the slightly lower risk is worth it to you is a personal decision. Whichever you choose, I think buying soon is probably wise. Best of luck. -Roger

      1. Melissa says:

        Roger, thank you for this excellent advice! I booked our flights to Rome this morning and decided to forego the direct flight and travel via air lingus with a short transfer in Dublin. I feel great about this decision – Your guidance was reassuring and I spent $2000 less than if we travelled non-stop! Our family of 6 can definitely put that savings to good use visiting the many wonders awaiting us in Rome. Your extensive knowledge and quick response to my inquiry are much appreciated! All my best! – Meliissa

  5. Johnny Large says:

    I’m flying from Phoenix, AZ to Sydney, Australia November 23, 2014 and return December 21. We are taking a cruise within those dates and so must insure we be in Sydney at that time. Should we go ahead and book now, or take a chance that prices will go down in the next 60-90 days? Also, every airline (Delta, Virgin, United, Quantas) have almost exactly the same price quotes…..is this price fixing legal??

    1. Roger Wade says:

      Johnny,

      Those trans-Pacific flights to Australia always seem to be weirdly expensive, so I understand your concern. But I’ve never heard any concrete accusations that it’s price fixing, so I think it’s mainly that one airline sets a price and the others know they have to be in the same range or their planes will fly empty. And if they price the seats too low, they will fill up the planes and still lose money. In situations where there is only one airline doing a route, consumers are at their mercy and that seems like a bigger problem.

      Anyway, there doesn’t seem to be anything special about the dates you are flying, and I’m seeing fares at around US$1,585 right now. When checking about a month earlier, the fares were about the same, but checking for flights leaving in late September and returning in mid October, the lowest fare is only US$1,450, although that’s with 2 stops on the way. So my best guess is that those fares you are looking at won’t change much in the next two months or so, and they might drop by a bit, though they also might jump up a bit. In other words, if you wait one or two months, you might save US$100 per ticket, but probably not more than that. Since you already have that cruise locked in, it’s probably worth it to just buy the plane tickets and get it over with. It’s just unfortunate that the “lowest” fares on this route are really high. Best of luck. -Roger

      1. Johnny Large says:

        Thanks very much for your informative reply Roger. Reading your other replies, they always seem to be intelligently written and chocked full of usual information. Your time and efforts are much appreciated.

  6. Sue says:

    Hi Roger,
    Multiple flights from ATL to SEA, then out PSC WA to ATL. Aug 7-10
    Looking at 9 weeks out right now,$689
    Scared they will not drop as I look though earlier weeks.
    Any advise?
    Thanks!

    1. Roger Wade says:

      Sue,

      This looks like a tricky one if you need to fly back from Pasco instead of going back to Seattle for a more-direct flight. I just ran your dates through the Kayak multi-city tool and I see many options starting at US$534, but with very long connections on the way home. I also ran the dates for just an ATL-SEA round-trip, and there are good options on US Air and Alaska starting at US$423 total. Then I ran that same trip through for dates two weeks earlier, and it was quite a bit more expensive.

      Generally, flights in July are more expensive than those in August because most people prefer to take trips earlier in the summer than later. If I were you, I might consider finding a way back to SEA by car or bus or something because it’s probably a shorter travel time anyway because you can avoid a potentially long layover. If you have to fly out of Pasco then fares might not come down because it’s kind of an obscure route with very little competition. And since the July flights are already showing higher, the fares might go up before long as well. Interesting dilemma, but I personally have no clear sense of which direction this one might go. Best of luck. -Roger

  7. Karen says:

    Hi Roger,
    Not sure if you saw my reply above? I’ll copy it below:

    Hi again,
    I can’t figure out how to reply to your reply- but thank you! Just curious, were you looking specifically at South African Airways? We really want to fly there non-stop because our young children (3 and 1) will be with us, so I’ve primarily been looking at SAA for a direct flight. Also, I’m not sure if you’re able to look even closer- but the dates we were thinking will actually go into August. I’ve mostly been researching July 23 to Aug 6, but we’re flexible (+/- 4 days or so). Lastly, just to be clear- you think I should wait as much as 4 weeks from now to book? Thanks again! It’s really awesome that you respond to all of these comments! I appreciate it so much!

    Karen

    1. Roger Wade says:

      Karen,

      Sorry I missed this comment a few days ago, and thank you for posting it again. I try my best to answer every question within 24 hours, but once in a while one will fall through the cracks.

      The flights that I was looking at were all with one stop in Europe on the way, and I see many of those for around US$1450 for your dates, but the nonstop on SAA is still US$1,812. And unfortunately, I checked those flights on dates 3 to 5 weeks from now and SAA is still US$1,812, even though 2-stop fares are as low as US$1,250 on some of them. So from the looks of it, the SAA fare probably isn’t coming down in the next few weeks, and if you get unlucky it could jump up soon, although my best guess is that it stays at that fare until it’s mostly full.

      It looks like you’ll either have to change planes on the way, or pay what South African Airlines is currently asking. Best of luck with it all. -Roger

      1. Karen says:

        No problem about the reply. I saw that you have replied within the day for most questions, so I assumed you just missed it. Thanks for your info!

        My father-in-law lives in New York City, so just to check other options, I looked for flights from NYC to Johannesburg too. I just found one for $1535 that uses Virgin Atlantic and goes from JFK to London with a 1hr 30min layover and then onto Johannesburg, and a 2hr 30 min layover on the return trip home. Do you think we should book that? I’ve seen other layovers in Europe that were 13+ hrs and didn’t want to end up with something like that.

        You said you saw flights in a few weeks for $1450 with layovers in Europe. Were those layovers very long? Also is Virgin Atlantic a good airline anyway? Thanks for any help you can provide!

        1. Roger Wade says:

          Virgin Atlantic is indeed a good airline with a good reputation. The seat pitch (room between your seat and the seat in front of you) is only 31″ on that route, which is a bit tighter than some others, but if you aren’t tall then it’s probably fine.

          I have a few more recommendations to help you make this decision. When you want to check layover durations and that sort of thing, run your flight search through hipmunk.com. They list results by how convenient each flight is, rather than just by price. They’ll have pretty much all the flights that do that route. And for specifics on seat comfort and amenities, as well as a listing with the “happiest” flights first, run your search through routehappy.com. I love that site for finding which flights have more legroom and bigger seats (because I’m a big and tall guy). However, it’s a newer site and they don’t seem to list every flight so it’s hard to use it without also checking on the others.

          Lastly, if you are about comfort about specific seats on each plane, go to seatguru.com. You can put in the airline and flight number, and it will show you a map of the plane along with which seats are best and which to avoid. With all of that info, you should be ready to make a decision, although feel free to ask again if something else comes up. -Roger

  8. gsr says:

    Hi,
    I am looking for flights from Hyderabad, India to JFK in Emirates via Dubai for my parents. I plan to join them from Dubai to JFK from Dubai. When i see, the fares on HYD-DXB-JFK are far less when compared to DXB-JFK on the same flight on same day. How should i go about it.Ideally DXB-JFK should be less !! appreciate your inputs.thanks in adv

    1. Roger Wade says:

      gsr,

      Ah yes, I’ve seen that before and it’s frustrating. The method for getting around it is known as “hidden city ticketing” but it really wouldn’t work for you because it only works when you can throw away the second portion of a ticket, rather than the first. In other words, if you bought a ticket starting in Hyderabad, but skipped the first leg and tried to board in Dubai, they would cancel your whole ticket (with no refund) because you missed the first leg.

      I think the only option would be to shop for a lower price on a different flight or airline from Dubai to JFK. There is a lot of competition on that route so you should get a decent deal, but of course that would mean just meeting your parents at the airports rather than flying with them. Unfortunately, there are no known tricks to get a lower fare in your situation. Best of luck with whatever you decide. -Roger

  9. Mark says:

    Hi

    I’m looking at getting a return flight to Seattle from London mid July. I looked a few weeks ago and since then the prices have increased by £60. Should I buy now in case prices continue to rise, or should I wait a few weeks before departure and hope they decrease in price?

    Thanks

    1. Roger Wade says:

      Mark,

      According to the research, that fare would be cheapest about 11 weeks out, and right now you are about 8 weeks out. My best guess is that fares will stay what they are now, maybe they’ll dip a bit in the next week or two, but they might start to move up before going down. In other words, I think you should be ready to buy soon, and maybe just get it over with.

      By the way, you might also check EasyJet (or some other airline) to Reykjavik, and then Iceland Air’s nonstop from Reykjavik to Seattle. I did that late last summer, and it was actually cheaper than a single ticket the whole way. Good luck. -Roger

  10. Karen says:

    Hi,
    We are leaving from Washington, D.C. to Johannesburg, South Africa in late July. I have been watching the deals on the flysaa website. They seemed to drop the price monthly (to about $1100pp), until now. They skipped over July and August and have dropped the price for September travel. The tickets are very expensive ($1800pp). Do you think they’ll go down in the next few weeks (according to your article- it says 3-5 weeks out for Africa)or should I just buy now at the higher rate. I’m nervous to cut it too close.

    Thanks!

    1. Roger Wade says:

      Karen,

      This is a tough one because the data says 3 to 5 weeks out is usually cheapest, but it’s also possible that they don’t do late discounts like that during the busy months of July and August. The patterns for the busiest times can be different from the rest of the year, and that might not show up in the research.

      But I just did some checking, with a pair of dates in late July, and the lowest fares were about US$1,700. Then I checked the same thing except for 4 weeks from now, and there were many fares around US$1,450 each. In other words, it appears that the pattern from the research is still working, and I think you’ll save at least a couple hundred dollars if you wait for a few more weeks. It also seems unlikely that fares will just keep going up from here, so I don’t think there’s a huge risk in waiting. Good luck. -Roger

      1. Karen says:

        Hi again,
        I can’t figure out how to reply to your reply- but thank you! Just curious, were you looking specifically at South African Airways? We really want to fly there non-stop because our young children (3 and 1) will be with us, so I’ve primarily been looking at SAA for a direct flight. Also, I’m not sure if you’re able to look even closer- but the dates we were thinking will actually go into August. I’ve mostly been researching July 23 to Aug 6, but we’re flexible (+/- 4 days or so). Lastly, just to be clear- you think I should wait as much as 4 weeks from now to book? Thanks again! It’s really awesome that you respond to all of these comments! I appreciate it so much!

        Karen